Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Werewolves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Werewolf RPG?

RPG + Werewolves

Of 24 developers who shipped a Werewolf RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×462 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Werewolves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $3.9k → $8.8k → $8.4k → $21k → $7.0k → $240 (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Werewolves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,331)
Top 5% $290k (exactly $290,134)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 92
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Werewolves
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Character Customization
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Gore, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,029 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
Disciples: Liberation older $39.99 2,706 73% 81k $3.2M (exactly $3,246,388) Frima Studio
Werewolf: The Apocalypse - Earthblood older $29.99 1,463 69% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,261) Cyanide Studio
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
Project Werewulf $29.99 778 83% 23k $700k (exactly $699,967) FTRGameStudio
Virgo Versus The Zodiac older $19.99 790 92% 24k $474k (exactly $473,763) Moonana
Werewolf: The Apocalypse — Heart of the Forest older $14.99 805 83% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) Different Tales
Wigmund older $14.99 795 80% 24k $358k (exactly $357,512) The Scholastics
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Eville older $14.99 433 68% 13k $195k (exactly $194,720) VestGames
No Socks RPG $9.99 286 92% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) Spicyfuse
Break Wolf $11.99 171 98% 5.1k $62k (exactly $61,509) RE Atelier
Hunter: The Reckoning — The Beast of Glenkildove $11.99 108 91% 3.2k $39k (exactly $38,848) Choice of Games
Successor $24.99 43 60% 1.3k $32k (exactly $32,237) Playwood Project
Hunter: The Reckoning — A Time of Monsters $14.99 63 80% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) Choice of Games
Toward Dawn $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Devi Serene
Bloodcrave $14.99 44 72% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Blue Fiend Studios
Ascension to the Throne: Valkyrie $4.99 102 89% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,269) DVS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.