Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire RPG?

RPG + Vampires

Of 92 developers who shipped a Vampire RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1934 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 135 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 135 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.5k → $4.8k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $3.2k → $300 (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,213)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 278
Announced 135
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 40,396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

CODE VEIN 2019 · $83M Vampire Survivors 2022 · $38M Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 2019 · $35M The Blood of Dawnwalker 2026 · $33M Vampyr 2018 · $24M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Vampyr older $39.99 20,081 77% 602k $24M (exactly $24,091,176) DONTNOD Entertainment
Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 $59.99 10,443 55% 313k $19M (exactly $18,794,267) The Chinese Room
Evil West older $49.99 10,215 74% 306k $15M (exactly $15,319,436) Flying Wild Hog
CODE VEIN II $69.99 5,193 66% 156k $11M (exactly $10,903,742) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Banishers: Ghosts of New Eden older $49.99 6,429 84% 193k $9.6M (exactly $9,641,571) DON'T NOD
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines older $19.99 13,889 94% 417k $8.3M (exactly $8,329,233) Troika Games
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
绯红编年史 ~ Chronicle of Scarlet ~ $12.99 697 88% 21k $272k (exactly $271,621) Charge Piggy Studio
Few Nights More $14.99 382 81% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Aeterna Ludi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.