Should I ship a Horror RPG?
RPG + Horror
Of 595 developers who shipped a Horror RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,060 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 1,060 games are announced against 323 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,183) |
| Top 5% | $720k (exactly $719,960) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 595 |
| Released games | 1,994 |
| Announced | 1,060 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 489,858 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 351 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,060 games are announced against 323 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide 2022 · $130M 
Dying Light: The Beast 2025 · $107M 
Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M 
Tomb Raider Game of the Year 2013 · $104M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Darktide | older | $39.99 | 108,477 72% | 3.3M | $130M (exactly $130,139,857) | Fatshark |
| | Dying Light: The Beast | $59.99 | 59,318 87% | 1.8M | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) | Techland | |
| | Darkest Dungeon® | older | $24.99 | 140,790 91% | 4.2M | $106M (exactly $105,550,263) | Red Hook Studios |
| | Tomb Raider Game of the Year | older | $19.99 | 173,270 95% | 5.2M | $104M (exactly $103,910,019) | Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes) |
 | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Undertale | older | $9.99 | 307,601 96% | 9.2M | $92M (exactly $92,188,020) | tobyfox |
 | Grounded | older | $39.99 | 75,755 90% | 2.3M | $91M (exactly $90,883,274) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
 | REMNANT II® | older | $49.99 | 46,219 82% | 1.4M | $69M (exactly $69,314,634) | Gunfire Games |
 | MiSide | $14.99 | 122,007 97% | 3.7M | $55M (exactly $54,866,548) | AIHASTO | |
 | Mewgenics | $29.99 | 49,996 89% | 1.5M | $45M (exactly $44,981,401) | Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Witchfire | · EA | $39.99 | 17,131 91% | 514k | $21M (exactly $20,552,061) | The Astronauts |
 | Grounded 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 21,442 82% | 643k | $19M (exactly $19,291,367) | Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | Halloween: The Game | $39.99 | 11,868 68% | 356k | $14M (exactly $14,238,040) | IllFonic |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.