Should I ship a Dwarf RPG?
RPG + Dwarves
Of 20 developers who shipped a Dwarf RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.0k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11220 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 40 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.0k (exactly $7,969) |
| Top 25% | $233k (exactly $233,283) |
| Top 5% | $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 112 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 465% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Hack and Slash, Action
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 17,827 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 40 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Warhammer: Vermintide 2 2018 · $82M 
Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M 
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition 2010 · $26M 
Pillars of Eternity 2015 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Warhammer: Vermintide 2 | older | $29.99 | 91,013 84% | 2.7M | $82M (exactly $81,884,396) | Fatshark |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
| | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
| | Pillars of Eternity | older | $29.99 | 16,990 87% | 510k | $15M (exactly $15,285,903) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide | older | $29.99 | 13,662 81% | 410k | $12M (exactly $12,291,701) | Fatshark |
 | The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ | older | $29.99 | 10,242 80% | 307k | $9.2M (exactly $9,214,727) | Free Range Games |
 | Craft The World | older | $18.99 | 15,074 88% | 452k | $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) | Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games |
 | Absolum | $24.99 | 9,399 91% | 282k | $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) | Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks | |
 | SpellForce 3 Reforced | older | $39.99 | 5,784 76% | 174k | $6.9M (exactly $6,939,065) | Grimlore Games |
 | Dwarves: Glory, Death and Loot | $14.99 | 2,588 82% | 78k | $1.2M (exactly $1,163,824) | Hamma Studios | |
 | The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition | $19.99 | 1,858 83% | 56k | $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) | Aspyr Media | |
 | Dwarven Realms | $9.99 | 2,850 81% | 86k | $854k (exactly $854,145) | Crater Studios | |
 | Regions of Ruin: Runegate | $19.99 | 389 84% | 12k | $233k (exactly $233,283) | Gameclaw Studio | |
 | Union of Gnomes | $14.99 | 270 80% | 8.1k | $121k (exactly $121,419) | Hoolignomes | |
 | Gargadusa's Tower | $8.99 | 294 90% | 8.8k | $79k (exactly $79,292) | The Math Team | |
 | Dverghold | · EA | $16.99 | 108 95% | 3.2k | $55k (exactly $55,048) | Team Sorgarn |
 | Dwarf Delve | $12.99 | 33 33% | 990 | $13k (exactly $12,860) | Gloom Box | |
 | Tales of Astel | · EA | $6.99 | 38 71% | 1.1k | $8.0k (exactly $7,969) | Zetlaff |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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