Should I ship a Ninja RPG?
RPG + Ninja
Of 25 developers who shipped a Ninja RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×39376 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) |
| Top 25% | $14k (exactly $14,270) |
| Top 5% | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 117 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 54,088 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M 
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 2023 · $26M 
Nioh 3 2026 · $25M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | Nioh: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 29,580 78% | 887k | $44M (exactly $44,361,126) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER | older | $19.99 | 42,572 84% | 1.3M | $26M (exactly $25,530,428) | Soleil Ltd. |
| | Nioh 3 | $69.99 | 11,777 78% | 353k | $25M (exactly $24,728,167) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD | older | $19.99 | 10,749 89% | 322k | $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) | CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd. |
 | Shogun Showdown | older | $14.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) | Roboatino |
 | Neptunia x SENRAN KAGURA: Ninja Wars | older | $49.99 | 999 82% | 30k | $1.5M (exactly $1,498,200) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart, Tamsoft |
 | Sairento VR | older | $29.99 | 1,448 86% | 43k | $1.3M (exactly $1,302,766) | Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd) |
 | Sakura Gozen | $16.99 | 320 96% | 9.6k | $163k (exactly $163,104) | kaniheadcrab | |
 | Fight School Simulator | $9.99 | 227 88% | 6.8k | $68k (exactly $68,032) | Queen | |
 | Shadowed: The Demon Castle of Ooe | $15.99 | 56 92% | 1.7k | $27k (exactly $26,863) | Lab Rabbit Games ltd | |
 | Loli Ninja Village | $6.99 | 92 80% | 2.8k | $19k (exactly $19,292) | PAON, 072 Localize | |
 | Ninja Ordinance | $13.99 | 34 73% | 1.0k | $14k (exactly $14,270) | OneCoin | |
 | 戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- | $9.99 | 47 89% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | hizaniya games | |
 | Samurai: Ronin's Path | $4.99 | 79 56% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $11,826) | GameHunters |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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