Should I ship a Romance RPG?
RPG + Romance
Of 575 developers who shipped a Romance RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 823 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×877 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 823 games are announced against 331 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.0k (exactly $1,970) |
|---|---|
| Median | $11k (exactly $10,782) |
| Top 25% | $62k (exactly $61,817) |
| Top 5% | $551k (exactly $550,549) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 575 |
| Released games | 1,795 |
| Announced | 823 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 152,545 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 343 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 823 games are announced against 331 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition 2021 · $112M 
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard 2024 · $74M 
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition | older | $59.99 | 62,205 91% | 1.9M | $112M (exactly $111,950,338) | BioWare |
| | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
| | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Tales of ARISE | older | $49.99 | 27,643 86% | 829k | $41M (exactly $41,456,207) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. |
 | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition | older | $29.99 | 28,721 85% | 862k | $26M (exactly $25,840,284) | BioWare |
 | To the Moon | older | $9.99 | 69,549 95% | 2.1M | $21M (exactly $20,843,835) | Freebird Games |
 | Fields of Mistria | $13.99 | 31,918 96% | 958k | $13M (exactly $13,395,985) | NPC Studio | |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter | $59.99 | 4,650 95% | 140k | $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven | $49.99 | 3,921 93% | 118k | $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) | Square Enix, xeen Inc. | |
 | Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma | $59.99 | 2,947 88% | 88k | $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) | Marvelous Inc. | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Moonlight Peaks | $34.99 | 1,793 88% | 54k | $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) | Little Chicken |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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