Should I ship a Fantasy RPG?
RPG + Fantasy
Of 2,481 developers who shipped a Fantasy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,014 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1207 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 5,014 games are announced against 1,466 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $28,057) |
| Top 5% | $758k (exactly $758,241) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 2,481 |
| Released games | 8,359 |
| Announced | 5,014 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 833,031 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 1,376 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,014 games are announced against 1,466 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
 | Monster Hunter: World | older | $29.99 | 317,068 89% | 9.5M | $285M (exactly $285,266,080) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
 | The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition | older | $39.99 | 219,271 94% | 6.6M | $263M (exactly $263,059,419) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
 | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | $49.99 | 59,690 76% | 1.8M | $90M (exactly $89,517,093) | Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos | |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | God of War Ragnarök | $59.99 | 32,502 89% | 975k | $58M (exactly $58,493,849) | Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive | |
 | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH | $49.99 | 25,363 75% | 761k | $38M (exactly $38,036,891) | Square Enix |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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