Games › RPG › RPG + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led RPG?
RPG + Villain Protagonist
Only 17 developers shipped a Villain-Led RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, OFF, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2215 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $17,270) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,359) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 80 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Combat, Roguelite, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 4,049 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Maneater 2021 · $26M 
Prototype 2 2012 · $12M 
Tyranny 2016 · $8.9M 
Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M 
Empire of Sin 2020 · $5.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
| | Prototype 2 | older | $39.99 | 10,389 75% | 312k | $12M (exactly $12,463,683) | Radical Entertainment |
| | Tyranny | older | $29.99 | 9,877 87% | 296k | $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) | Obsidian Entertainment |
| | Iratus: Lord of the Dead | older | $29.99 | 7,206 84% | 216k | $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) | Unfrozen |
| | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
 | STAR WARS™ - The Force Unleashed™ Ultimate Sith Edition | older | $19.99 | 8,732 77% | 262k | $5.2M (exactly $5,236,580) | LucasArts |
 | Reverse Collapse: Code Name Bakery | older | $24.99 | 4,861 78% | 146k | $3.6M (exactly $3,644,292) | Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co.… (Shanghai Sunborn Network Technology Co., Ltd.) |
 | Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager | older | $19.99 | 3,939 79% | 118k | $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) | Goblinz Studio |
 | OFF | $14.99 | 3,093 95% | 93k | $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) | Mortis Ghost, Fangamer | |
 | DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince | older | $39.99 | 1,158 71% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) | Square Enix |
 | Few Nights More | $14.99 | 382 81% | 11k | $172k (exactly $171,785) | Aeterna Ludi | |
 | Fall of an Empire | $29.99 | 80 67% | 2.4k | $72k (exactly $71,976) | JG Games | |
 | Munch | $16.66 | 96 60% | 2.9k | $48k (exactly $47,981) | Mac n Cheese Games | |
 | Lords of Ravage | $9.99 | 138 66% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | Synthetic Domain | |
 | Monstergirl Hunters | $15.99 | 70 94% | 2.1k | $34k (exactly $33,579) | MadoWorks | |
 | Necro Story | $14.99 | 73 89% | 2.2k | $33k (exactly $32,828) | Rablo Games | |
 | My Infamous Dungeon | $14.99 | 63 76% | 1.9k | $28k (exactly $28,331) | BoxFox Studios | |
 | Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator | $17.99 | 32 50% | 960 | $17k (exactly $17,270) | simulinati | |
 | Splash Shot Golf Legend | $19.99 | 22 54% | 660 | $13k (exactly $13,193) | TANUKIHOUSE |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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