Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII RPG?

RPG + World War II

Only 12 developers shipped a WWII RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Burden of Command™, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $410; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×750 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 21 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $43k → $1.2k → $0 → $14k → $446 → $405 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $405 (exactly $405)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $471k (exactly $470,812)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 82
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $410, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $410. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
RAID: World War II older $9.99 2,369 65% 71k $710k (exactly $709,989) Lion game Lion, Sidetrack Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Broken Lines older $24.99 604 76% 18k $453k (exactly $452,819) BirdIsland/PortaPlay
Lunar Mirror:The Pavilion of Desire older $9.99 1,329 81% 40k $398k (exactly $398,301) TUTGame
My Waifu Is A Tank Girl! 💕 $2.99 161 80% 4.8k $14k (exactly $14,442) Neko Cloud
Partisan $7.99 31 83% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Paradigm
Sinking The Boats $6.99 34 94% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 孟夏Mengxia
Under a Desert Sun: Seekers of the Cursed Vessel · EA $24.99 6 100% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Revolving Gear Studios
101st Airborne in Normandy $4.99 15 60% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Interactive Simulations
Blade of Vengeance: Night Raid at Swift Peak Pass $7.99 2 0% 60 $479 (exactly $479) 几几不小心
谍影:余烬 $0.99 15 93% 450 $446 (exactly $446) 咕噜狗
BERSERK TANK $4.50 3 66% 90 $405 (exactly $405) WU YU CHENG
Survive, Resist, Collaborate - a World War 2 Choice-Based Story $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Asterism Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.