Should I ship a Mystery RPG?
RPG + Mystery
Of 580 developers who shipped a Mystery RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,285 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×584 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,285 games are announced against 329 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,236) |
| Top 5% | $367k (exactly $367,016) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 580 |
| Released games | 1,609 |
| Announced | 1,285 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 91% positive over 237,022 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 317 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,285 games are announced against 329 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M 
Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
DREDGE 2023 · $36M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
| | Persona 3 Reload | older | $59.99 | 43,497 95% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $78,281,551) | ATLUS |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | DREDGE | older | $24.99 | 47,624 95% | 1.4M | $36M (exactly $35,703,713) | Black Salt Games |
 | Graveyard Keeper | older | $19.99 | 39,547 86% | 1.2M | $24M (exactly $23,716,336) | Lazy Bear Games |
 | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Echoes of Aincrad | $69.99 | 4,108 47% | 123k | $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) | Game Studio Inc. | |
 | Drova - Forsaken Kin | $24.99 | 9,455 93% | 284k | $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) | Just2D | |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Look Outside | $9.99 | 13,586 98% | 408k | $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) | Francis Coulombe | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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