Should I ship a Pirate RPG?
RPG + Pirates
Of 54 developers who shipped a Pirate RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $200; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 113 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $200 (exactly $200) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,568) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $50,366) |
| Top 5% | $859k (exactly $859,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 54 |
| Released games | 202 |
| Announced | 113 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 58,378 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $200. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 2023 · $21M 
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M 
Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ 2021 · $9.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 | older | $39.99 | 17,281 91% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,732,016) | Koei Tecmo |
| | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
| | Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ | older | $29.99 | 10,623 88% | 319k | $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) | Airship Syndicate |
 | ONE PIECE World Seeker | older | $59.99 | 4,941 77% | 148k | $8.9M (exactly $8,892,318) | GANBARION Co., Ltd. |
 | Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire | older | $19.99 | 14,659 87% | 440k | $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) | Obsidian Entertainment |
 | Gothic II: Gold Edition | older | $19.99 | 12,637 93% | 379k | $7.6M (exactly $7,578,409) | Piranha Bytes |
 | One Piece Burning Blood | older | $49.99 | 3,751 81% | 113k | $5.6M (exactly $5,625,375) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Skull and Bones | older | $29.99 | 4,650 65% | 140k | $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) | Ubisoft Singapore |
 | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
 | Ys X: Proud Nordics | $59.99 | 336 75% | 10k | $605k (exactly $604,699) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | Dead Weight | $12.99 | 575 82% | 17k | $224k (exactly $224,078) | Klukva Games | |
 | Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey | $14.99 | 348 79% | 10k | $156k (exactly $156,496) | World of Poly | |
 | Forsaken Isle | $8.99 | 462 70% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,601) | Smoodlez | |
 | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.