Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Wuxia

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wuxia RPG?

RPG + Wuxia

Of 37 developers who shipped a Wuxia RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $26k, ×42 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.2M, ×6831 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 81 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Wuxia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269k → $487k → $6.4M → $768k → $152k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Wuxia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Median $26k (exactly $26,347)
Top 25% $479k (exactly $478,930)
Top 5% $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 108
Announced 81
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 540% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wuxia
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 82,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.7k, median $26k, 1 in 4 over $470k, 1 in 20 over $4.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.7k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018 · $37M Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M Legend of Mortal 2024 · $20M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) older $29.99 40,829 85% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,733,851) 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司, Aurogon Shanghai
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Wandering Sword older $24.99 37,034 94% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,764,390) The Swordman Studio
Legend of Mortal older $19.99 33,730 77% 1.0M $20M (exactly $20,227,881) Obb Studio Inc.
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
Sword and Fairy 7 older $29.99 15,567 72% 467k $14M (exactly $14,005,630) 软星科技(SoftStarlight)
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion older $17.99 22,287 84% 669k $12M (exactly $12,028,294) 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio）
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Bladesong · EA $19.99 1,483 95% 44k $889k (exactly $889,355) SUN AND SERPENT creations
再见断刀 $9.99 2,563 92% 77k $768k (exactly $768,131) 非侠游戏
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
侠影录 $14.99 1,065 75% 32k $479k (exactly $478,930) 朽木工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.