Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration game?

Exploration

Of 7,466 developers who shipped an Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15,501 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1321 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 15,501 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7,466
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.6k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $1.9k → $1.6k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7,466
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Developers, 2 yr 7,466
Released games 22,334
Announced 15,501
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,271,036 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 4,349 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Exploration

75 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Exploration + Spaceships Fair $3.5k 22 devs
  2. Exploration + Wuxia Poor odds $192k 12 devs
  3. Exploration + Martial Arts Poor odds $69k 25 devs
  4. Exploration + Farming Poor odds $24k 41 devs
  5. Exploration + Trains Poor odds $16k 47 devs
  6. Exploration + Horses Poor odds $11k 32 devs
  7. Exploration + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $9.8k 161 devs
  8. Exploration + Western Poor odds $9.7k 45 devs
  9. Exploration + Cold War Poor odds $7.0k 26 devs
  10. Exploration + Lovecraftian Poor odds $6.3k 160 devs
  11. Exploration + Naval Poor odds $6.0k 53 devs
  12. Exploration + Music Poor odds $5.7k 36 devs
  13. Exploration + Capitalism Poor odds $5.7k 89 devs
  14. Exploration + Heist Poor odds $5.5k 38 devs
  15. Exploration + Romance Poor odds $5.2k 231 devs
  16. Exploration + Transhumanism Poor odds $5.2k 28 devs
  17. Exploration + Animals Poor odds $5.1k 61 devs
  18. Exploration + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.5k 858 devs
  19. Exploration + Ninja Poor odds $4.5k 17 devs
  20. Exploration + Vampires Poor odds $4.2k 51 devs
  21. Exploration + Historical Poor odds $4.1k 238 devs
  22. Exploration + War Poor odds $4.1k 69 devs
  23. Exploration + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 82 devs
  24. Exploration + Gothic Poor odds $3.9k 92 devs
  25. Exploration + Steampunk Poor odds $3.6k 48 devs
  26. Exploration + Crime Poor odds $3.5k 187 devs
  27. Exploration + Rome Poor odds $3.4k 10 devs
  28. Exploration + Dogs Poor odds $3.3k 84 devs
  29. Exploration + Dragons Poor odds $3.1k 78 devs
  30. Exploration + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $3.1k 446 devs
  31. Exploration + Snow Poor odds $2.8k 73 devs
  32. Exploration + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.7k 517 devs
  33. Exploration + World War II Poor odds $2.5k 17 devs
  34. Exploration + Modern Poor odds $2.3k 152 devs
  35. Exploration + Underwater Poor odds $2.3k 129 devs
  36. Exploration + Mechs Poor odds $2.3k 35 devs
  37. Exploration + Medieval Poor odds $2.2k 488 devs
  38. Exploration + Fantasy Poor odds $2.2k 1,366 devs
  39. Exploration + Magic Poor odds $2.2k 532 devs
  40. Exploration + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.2k 989 devs
  41. Exploration + Assassins Poor odds $2.2k 43 devs
  42. Exploration + Werewolves Poor odds $2.1k 19 devs
  43. Exploration + Time Travel Poor odds $2.1k 59 devs
  44. Exploration + Thriller Poor odds $2.1k 719 devs
  45. Exploration + Zombies Poor odds $2.1k 305 devs
  46. Exploration + Science Poor odds $2.1k 114 devs
  47. Exploration + Cats Poor odds $2.0k 192 devs
  48. Exploration + Supernatural Poor odds $1.9k 581 devs
  49. Exploration + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 150 devs
  50. Exploration + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.8k 1,723 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.