Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Exploration game?

Exploration + Farming

Of 41 developers who shipped a Farming Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×50 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×5070 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 58 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 58 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $171k → $5.9k → $25k → $18k → $22k → $39k (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Median $24k (exactly $23,706)
Top 25% $127k (exactly $127,136)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 89
Announced 58
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Crafting
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 51,738 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.4k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.4k. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds31 devs · median $23k · 56 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Kynseed older $24.99 3,513 83% 105k $2.6M (exactly $2,633,696) PixelCount Studios
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Backroom Company $8.99 608 81% 18k $164k (exactly $163,978) Hypercent Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.