Games › Exploration › Exploration + Science
Should I ship a Science Exploration game?
Exploration + Science
Of 114 developers who shipped a Science Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 229 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×5882 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 229 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.1k (exactly $2,096) |
| Top 25% | $16k (exactly $16,160) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 114 |
| Released games | 371 |
| Announced | 229 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Science
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Sandbox
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 99,312 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 229 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
ICARUS 2021 · $59M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
Kerbal Space Program 2 2023 · EA · $42M 
SPORE™ 2008 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
| | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
 | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
 | The Alters | $34.99 | 15,330 90% | 460k | $16M (exactly $16,091,901) | 11 bit studios | |
 | SpaceEngine | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,826 96% | 475k | $14M (exactly $14,238,652) | Cosmographic Software |
 | Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | older | $39.99 | 9,794 81% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,749,862) | Panache Digital Games |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb | |
 | Forever Skies | $29.99 | 8,138 78% | 244k | $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) | Far From Home | |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator | $34.99 | 1,319 97% | 40k | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) | Lyra Creative | |
 | WolfQuest: Classic | $29.99 | 1,401 90% | 42k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) | eduweb | |
 | The Last Starship | $19.99 | 1,623 75% | 49k | $973k (exactly $973,313) | Introversion Software |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.