Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Exploration game?

Exploration + LGBTQ+

Of 161 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 312 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.8k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1423 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 312 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 312 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $17k → $8.5k → $46k → $6.6k → $11k → $3.8k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,153)
Median $9.8k (exactly $9,777)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,166)
Top 5% $676k (exactly $675,862)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 478
Announced 312
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 65,774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $9.8k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 312 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Celeste older $19.99 132,072 97% 4.0M $79M (exactly $79,203,578) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Horizon Forbidden West™ Complete Edition older $59.99 20,438 87% 613k $37M (exactly $36,782,269) Guerrilla, Nixxes Software
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Forspoken older $69.99 5,384 64% 162k $11M (exactly $11,304,785) Square Enix
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
Gone Home older $14.99 13,619 77% 409k $6.1M (exactly $6,124,464) Fullbright
Prince of Persia The Lost Crown older $29.99 6,754 84% 203k $6.1M (exactly $6,076,574) Ubisoft Montpellier
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
Funi Raccoon Game $11.99 1,683 99% 50k $605k (exactly $605,375) Crayon, Kit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.