Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Exploration game?

Exploration + Capitalism

Of 89 developers who shipped a Capitalist Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1350 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 175 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 175 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 89
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.9k → $5.1k → $3.6k → $26k → $4.9k → $3.0k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 89
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $78,248)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,446)
Developers, 2 yr 89
Released games 210
Announced 175
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Simulation, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 26,048 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Fallout 76 2020 · $94M The Outer Worlds 2 2025 · $18M Night in the Woods 2017 · $11M Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault 2026 · $2.8M Saleblazers 2023 · EA · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
X3: Terran Conflict older $15.99 2,090 84% 63k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,573) Egosoft
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
Worming from Home $7.99 793 98% 24k $190k (exactly $190,082) Zach Northrop, Mason Sabharwal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.