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Should I ship a Martial-Arts Exploration game?
Exploration + Martial Arts
Of 25 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $69k, ×110 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3949 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 90 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
|---|---|
| Median | $69k (exactly $68,931) |
| Top 25% | $251k (exactly $251,149) |
| Top 5% | $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 94 |
| Announced | 90 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Martial Arts
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Combat
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 18,327 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
- + Job SimulatorPoor odds
Comparable games
BIOMUTANT 2021 · $16M 
觅长生 2023 · $12M 
Fate Seeker II 2021 · $7.7M 
下一站江湖Ⅱ 2024 · $6.4M 
The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BIOMUTANT | older | $39.99 | 13,169 67% | 395k | $16M (exactly $15,798,849) | Experiment 101 |
| | 觅长生 | older | $14.99 | 27,072 93% | 812k | $12M (exactly $12,174,278) | Chalcedony Network |
| | Fate Seeker II | older | $22.60 | 11,360 88% | 341k | $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) | JSL Entertainment |
| | 下一站江湖Ⅱ | older | $24.99 | 8,507 72% | 255k | $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) | 白玉京工作室 |
| | The Matchless Kungfu | $19.99 | 6,755 79% | 203k | $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) | HuanMos Game | |
 | 江湖十一 | older | $17.99 | 5,385 42% | 162k | $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) | 万象皆春 |
 | The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle | $17.99 | 4,595 67% | 138k | $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) | ChillyRoom | |
 | Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun | older | $19.99 | 3,829 66% | 115k | $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) | ZUIJIANGYUE Game |
 | Shenmue I & II | older | $29.99 | 2,144 89% | 64k | $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) | D3T |
 | River City Girls 2 | older | $39.99 | 1,552 85% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,861,934) | WayForward |
 | JIANGHU CHRONICLES | $17.99 | 2,046 70% | 61k | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) | 一品阁 | |
 | BLADECHIMERA | $14.99 | 1,358 88% | 41k | $611k (exactly $610,693) | Team Ladybug, WSS playground | |
 | The Devil Within: Satgat | $24.99 | 795 78% | 24k | $596k (exactly $596,012) | Newcore Games | |
 | Echoes of Yi : Samsara | $19.99 | 444 67% | 13k | $266k (exactly $266,267) | Runmeng | |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | 侠落：百花杀尽 | $12.99 | 493 70% | 15k | $192k (exactly $192,122) | 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司 | |
 | Desktop Raid | $8.99 | 672 76% | 20k | $181k (exactly $181,238) | Lee_Studio | |
 | Stack to Ascension | $12.99 | 331 54% | 9.9k | $129k (exactly $128,991) | Stack to Ascension |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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