Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Horses

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horse Exploration game?

Exploration + Horses

Of 32 developers who shipped a Horse Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2764 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Horses
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $9.0k → $69k → $11k → $120 → $70k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Horses: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Median $11k (exactly $10,518)
Top 25% $246k (exactly $245,877)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 94
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horses
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Open World, RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 121,436 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
DEEEER Simulator: Your Average Everyday Deer Game older $14.99 4,443 92% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,998,017) Gibier Games
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Horse Tales: Emerald Valley Ranch older $29.99 874 62% 26k $786k (exactly $786,338) Aesir Interactive
Equinox: Homecoming $14.99 1,294 80% 39k $582k (exactly $581,912) Blue Scarab Entertainment
Harvest Moon: The Winds of Anthos older $49.99 370 73% 11k $555k (exactly $554,889) Appci Inc., Natsume Inc.
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Lyndaria: Lust Adventure $14.99 229 76% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Lustration Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.