Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Exploration game?

Exploration + Female Protagonist

Of 858 developers who shipped a Female-Led Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,713 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1551 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,713 games are announced against 473 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,713 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 858
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $5.9k → $7.8k → $4.7k → $4.6k → $4.8k → $4.6k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 858
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,177)
Top 5% $737k (exactly $736,816)
Developers, 2 yr 858
Released games 2,739
Announced 1,713
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $23.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $23.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 548,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 479 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,713 games are announced against 473 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
It Takes Two older $39.99 218,492 95% 6.6M $262M (exactly $262,124,852) Hazelight Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
Slime Rancher older $19.99 139,509 98% 4.2M $84M (exactly $83,663,547) Monomi Park
Celeste older $19.99 132,072 97% 4.0M $79M (exactly $79,203,578) Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Ga… (Maddy Makes Games Inc., Extremely OK Games, Ltd.)
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Haste $19.99 12,690 92% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) Landfall
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.