Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Exploration game?

Exploration + Western

Of 45 developers who shipped a Western Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.7k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×581 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $3.4k → $479 → $5.7k → $14k → $4.0k → $24k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Median $9.7k (exactly $9,712)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,526)
Top 5% $365k (exactly $365,104)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 115
Announced 74
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Open World, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,136 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.1k, median $9.7k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.1k. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
SteamWorld Dig 2 older $19.99 5,700 95% 171k $3.4M (exactly $3,418,290) Image & Form Games
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
SteamWorld Dig older $9.99 6,509 94% 195k $2.0M (exactly $1,950,747) Image & Form Games
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
The Oregon Trail older $29.99 1,220 79% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,097,634) Gameloft
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
Unbridled: That Horse Game · EA $24.99 487 85% 15k $365k (exactly $365,104) Mind Evotion Games
Wild Indigo Ranch $19.99 424 68% 13k $254k (exactly $254,273) Funday Games
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.