Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Werewolves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Werewolf Exploration game?

Exploration + Werewolves

Only 19 developers shipped a Werewolf Exploration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Night is Coming, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×611 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Werewolves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $77k → $19k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $4.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Werewolves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $290k (exactly $290,134)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 50
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Werewolves
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 746 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
Wigmund older $14.99 795 80% 24k $358k (exactly $357,512) The Scholastics
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Pomberito older $5.99 427 93% 13k $77k (exactly $76,732) Lara the Pitbull
Sinister Halloween older $7.99 125 82% 3.8k $30k (exactly $29,962) Celeritas Games
Security: The Horrible Nights $4.99 163 88% 4.9k $24k (exactly $24,401) Professional Villains
Endless Bounty older $5.99 122 95% 3.7k $22k (exactly $21,923) WolfBite Interactive LLC
The Dark World · EA older $19.99 33 54% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Digital Gods
Janosik 2 $8.99 70 95% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,879) Onix Games
Millennium 3 - Cry Wolf older $9.99 55 80% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Aldorlea Games
Asfalia: Panic at the Mansion $7.99 35 100% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Funtomata
Wolf with Inn $7.99 31 54% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Thundertale Studio
Amadeus: A Riddle for Thee ~ Episode 1 ~ Waltz $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) ArcanaXIX
The Shame of a Daydreamer $12.99 12 83% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Micki
WOLFMAN · EA $11.99 10 60% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) LithiumStudios
MeMic $7.99 11 63% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) OnlineKingdom
DEMONK $9.99 7 42% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) VETO GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.