Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Exploration game?

Exploration + Medieval

Of 488 developers who shipped a Medieval Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,045 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×1174 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 1,045 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 1,045 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 488
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $2.4k → $2.2k → $1.4k → $2.7k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 488
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,503)
Top 5% $558k (exactly $557,777)
Developers, 2 yr 488
Released games 1,273
Announced 1,045
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 264,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 270 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,045 games are announced against 265 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
DARK SOULS™ II older $39.99 33,329 87% 1.0M $40M (exactly $39,984,801) FromSoftware, Inc.
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Lords of the Fallen older $29.99 37,902 68% 1.1M $34M (exactly $34,100,429) CI Games
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion® Game of the Year Edition (2009) older $14.99 42,940 94% 1.3M $19M (exactly $19,310,118) Bethesda Game Studios
Assassin's Creed Mirage $49.99 11,612 76% 348k $17M (exactly $17,414,516) Ubisoft Bordeaux
Pax Dei $29.99 7,163 56% 215k $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) Mainframe Industries
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.