Games › Exploration › Exploration + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Exploration game?
Exploration + Heist
Of 38 developers who shipped a Heist Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 87 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) |
| Top 25% | $84k (exactly $84,374) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 100 |
| Announced | 87 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.00 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Heist
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
- Price point
- $8.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.00.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 24,999 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
Dishonored 2 2016 · $39M 
Crime Scene Cleaner 2024 · $29M 
Star Wars Outlaws 2024 · $26M 
Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | Dishonored 2 | older | $29.99 | 42,988 90% | 1.3M | $39M (exactly $38,676,304) | Arkane Studios |
| | Crime Scene Cleaner | older | $29.99 | 32,469 98% | 974k | $29M (exactly $29,212,359) | President Studio |
| | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
| | Thief Simulator | older | $19.99 | 37,377 88% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $22,414,987) | Noble Muffins |
 | Thief Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 6,568 87% | 197k | $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) | CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A. |
 | FINAL FANTASY | older | $11.99 | 8,120 95% | 244k | $2.9M (exactly $2,920,764) | Square Enix |
 | SteamWorld Heist II | older | $29.99 | 2,201 93% | 66k | $2.0M (exactly $1,980,240) | Thunderful Development |
 | Burglin' Gnomes | $9.99 | 4,635 83% | 139k | $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) | Fobri | |
 | The Break-In | $19.99 | 2,040 87% | 61k | $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) | jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow | $19.99 | 340 75% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | Maze Theory | |
 | Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry | $12.99 | 399 81% | 12k | $155k (exactly $155,490) | Ritual Interactive | |
 | Midnight Heist | $9.99 | 389 92% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | MediaTale | |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Frog Sqwad 🐸 | $7.99 | 352 72% | 11k | $84k (exactly $84,374) | Panic Stations |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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