Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration game?

Exploration

Of 7,466 developers who shipped an Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15,501 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1321 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 15,501 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7,466
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.6k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $1.9k → $1.6k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7,466
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Developers, 2 yr 7,466
Released games 22,334
Announced 15,501
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,271,036 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 4,349 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15,501 games are announced against 4,367 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Exploration

184 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Exploration + Roguelike Deckbuilder Fair $8.1k 22 devs
  2. Exploration + Minigames Fair $6.7k 31 devs
  3. Exploration + Escape Room Fair $2.2k 122 devs
  4. Real-Time with Pause + Exploration Poor odds $215k 13 devs
  5. Extraction Shooter + Exploration Poor odds $82k 23 devs
  6. Open World Survival Craft + Exploration Poor odds $58k 146 devs
  7. MMORPG + Exploration Poor odds $52k 24 devs
  8. Exploration + FMV Poor odds $27k 45 devs
  9. Exploration + Job Simulator Poor odds $23k 31 devs
  10. Automation + Exploration Poor odds $21k 144 devs
  11. Base Building + Exploration Poor odds $19k 449 devs
  12. Colony Sim + Exploration Poor odds $18k 143 devs
  13. Turn-Based + Exploration Poor odds $17k 41 devs
  14. Naval Combat + Exploration Poor odds $15k 40 devs
  15. Co-op Campaign + Exploration Poor odds $14k 54 devs
  16. Exploration + Hex Grid Poor odds $12k 35 devs
  17. Exploration + Auto Battler Poor odds $11k 51 devs
  18. Co-op + Exploration Poor odds $10k 588 devs
  19. Exploration + Tower Defense Poor odds $9.9k 80 devs
  20. Exploration + Dating Sim Poor odds $9.7k 181 devs
  21. Building + Exploration Poor odds $9.6k 591 devs
  22. Character Action Game + Exploration Poor odds $9.0k 10 devs
  23. 4X + Exploration Poor odds $9.0k 40 devs
  24. Online Co-Op + Exploration Poor odds $8.7k 572 devs
  25. Skateboarding + Exploration Poor odds $8.2k 15 devs
  26. Exploration + Farming Sim Poor odds $8.1k 181 devs
  27. Transportation + Exploration Poor odds $8.1k 73 devs
  28. Exploration + Card Battler Poor odds $8.1k 66 devs
  29. RTS + Exploration Poor odds $8.1k 100 devs
  30. Sandbox + Exploration Poor odds $7.2k 885 devs
  31. Management + Exploration Poor odds $7.2k 426 devs
  32. Exploration + Metroidvania Poor odds $7.0k 303 devs
  33. Souls-like + Exploration Poor odds $7.0k 220 devs
  34. Economy + Exploration Poor odds $6.7k 215 devs
  35. Driving + Exploration Poor odds $6.6k 191 devs
  36. JRPG + Exploration Poor odds $6.3k 350 devs
  37. Character Customization + Exploration Poor odds $6.2k 600 devs
  38. Crafting + Exploration Poor odds $6.0k 759 devs
  39. Exploration + Trading Poor odds $5.9k 88 devs
  40. Exploration + Deckbuilding Poor odds $5.5k 90 devs
  41. Exploration + Shop Keeper Poor odds $5.4k 51 devs
  42. City Builder + Exploration Poor odds $4.8k 187 devs
  43. Split Screen + Exploration Poor odds $4.8k 42 devs
  44. Automobile Sim + Exploration Poor odds $4.8k 117 devs
  45. Exploration + Cooking Poor odds $4.8k 120 devs
  46. Sailing + Exploration Poor odds $4.7k 92 devs
  47. Loot + Exploration Poor odds $4.5k 248 devs
  48. Exploration + Life Sim Poor odds $4.3k 426 devs
  49. Exploration + Resource Management Poor odds $4.2k 525 devs
  50. Exploration + Fishing Poor odds $4.2k 144 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.