Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Exploration game?

Exploration + Trains

Of 47 developers who shipped a Train Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 90 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 90 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $121k → $1.7k → $255k → $5.5k → $6.1k → $21k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Median $16k (exactly $15,978)
Top 25% $167k (exactly $167,288)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 112
Announced 90
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 28,637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 5 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Voidtrain 2025 · $7.8M Railway Empire 2018 · $6.5M SimRail - The Railway Simulator 2024 · $5.6M Railroads Online 2024 · $4.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Train Sim World® 2020 older $12.99 5,912 77% 177k $2.3M (exactly $2,303,906) Dovetail Games
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition older $24.99 2,661 84% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) Failbetter Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Zoochosis $24.99 2,200 60% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) Clapperheads
Thomas & Friends™: Wonders of Sodor $39.99 849 87% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,545) Dovetail Games
Locomoto $24.99 579 90% 17k $434k (exactly $434,076) Green Tile Digital
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.