Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Exploration game?

Exploration + Fantasy

Of 1,366 developers who shipped a Fantasy Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,242 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1356 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 3,242 games are announced against 719 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 3,242 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,366
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $2.9k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $3.0k → $1.6k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,366
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,159)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,388)
Top 5% $644k (exactly $644,174)
Developers, 2 yr 1,366
Released games 4,318
Announced 3,242
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.90 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.90 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 469,261 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 814 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,242 games are announced against 719 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED older $39.99 100,222 92% 3.0M $120M (exactly $120,236,333) QLOC, FromSoftware, Inc.
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.