Games › Exploration › Exploration + Post-apocalyptic
Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Exploration game?
Exploration + Post-apocalyptic
Of 446 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,076 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×4.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4007 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,076 games are announced against 266 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,964) |
| Top 5% | $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 446 |
| Released games | 1,156 |
| Announced | 1,076 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Survival
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 779,756 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 218 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,076 games are announced against 266 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M 
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
Fallout 4 2015 · $174M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 95,804 87% | 2.9M | $144M (exactly $143,677,259) | Guerrilla |
 | Dying Light: The Beast | $59.99 | 59,318 87% | 1.8M | $107M (exactly $106,754,605) | Techland | |
 | Metro Exodus | older | $29.99 | 117,453 90% | 3.5M | $106M (exactly $105,672,464) | 4A Games |
 | R.E.P.O. | · EA | $9.99 | 341,004 96% | 10M | $102M (exactly $102,198,899) | semiwork |
 | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH | $69.99 | 15,434 94% | 463k | $32M (exactly $32,406,770) | KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software | |
 | The Last Caretaker | · EA | $34.99 | 13,178 86% | 395k | $14M (exactly $13,832,947) | Channel37 Ltd |
 | Drive Beyond Horizons | · EA | $24.99 | 17,903 77% | 537k | $13M (exactly $13,421,879) | Drive Beyond Horizons |
 | ZERO Sievert | $19.99 | 14,378 84% | 431k | $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) | CABO Studio | |
 | MISERY | $12.99 | 20,015 85% | 600k | $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) | Platypus Entertainment | |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.