Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Exploration game?

Exploration + Steampunk

Of 48 developers who shipped a Steampunk Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1005 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 157 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 157 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $99k → $1.2k → $3.6k → $5.0k → $2.1k → $7.8k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,103)
Top 5% $631k (exactly $631,042)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 171
Announced 157
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Point & Click
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 55% positive over 15,372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Syberia: The World Before older $39.99 4,069 89% 122k $4.9M (exactly $4,881,579) Microids Studio Paris
The Room 4: Old Sins older $8.99 17,806 98% 534k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,278) Fireproof Games
Volcanoids · EA older $19.99 7,679 83% 230k $4.6M (exactly $4,605,096) Volcanoid
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Syberia - Remastered $29.99 724 70% 22k $651k (exactly $651,383) Virtuallyz Gaming, Microids Studio Paris
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Kristala $39.99 485 71% 15k $582k (exactly $581,854) Astral Clocktower Studios
Neyyah $24.99 229 83% 6.9k $172k (exactly $171,681) Defy Reality Entertainment
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Clockwork Ambrosia $19.99 133 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Realmsoft
Éalú $9.99 254 92% 7.6k $76k (exactly $76,124) Beyond the Bark, Orr Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.