Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Exploration game?

Exploration + Psychological Horror

Of 1,723 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,891 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×550 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 2,891 games are announced against 1,019 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 2,891 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,723
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $3.6k → $3.6k → $2.9k → $2.7k → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,723
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,800)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,074)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,104)
Developers, 2 yr 1,723
Released games 4,072
Announced 2,891
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 474,668 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 934 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,891 games are announced against 1,019 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard older $19.99 87,806 95% 2.6M $53M (exactly $52,657,258) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
Escape the Backrooms $9.99 137,315 90% 4.1M $41M (exactly $41,153,306) Fancy Games, Blackbird Interactive
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.