Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Exploration game?

Exploration + World War II

Only 17 developers shipped a WWII Exploration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $27M, ×43659 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 23 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $3.9k → $57k → $3.9k → $7.1k → $2.5k (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $27,417,883)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 66
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $27M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Tank Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 8,792 87% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,272,562) DeGenerals S.A.
Martha Is Dead older $29.99 2,700 78% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,429,190) LKA
WW2 Rebuilder older $19.99 1,504 84% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) Madnetic Games
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Deadfall Adventures older $19.99 1,307 74% 39k $784k (exactly $783,808) The Farm 51
BloodRayne: Terminal Cut older $14.99 1,593 90% 48k $716k (exactly $716,372) Terminal Reality
Aircraft Carrier Survival older $19.99 1,176 59% 35k $705k (exactly $705,247) Gambit Games Studio
Land of War - The Beginning older $19.99 713 53% 21k $428k (exactly $427,586) MS GAMES
Lunar Mirror:The Pavilion of Desire older $9.99 1,329 81% 40k $398k (exactly $398,301) TUTGame
Ship Explorer $19.99 134 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Turbine Room Studio
Salvation: Echoes of War $19.99 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Infinite Entropy
D-Day VR Museum $14.99 16 100% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Lichtblau IT
Sinking The Boats $6.99 34 94% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 孟夏Mengxia
Under a Desert Sun: Seekers of the Cursed Vessel · EA $24.99 6 100% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Revolving Gear Studios
.redruM $4.99 26 69% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Paul Alex M Samaniego
BIO Fault $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) IKO Games
Sleepless $5.99 11 54% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) CaRuFy, Nagodo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.