Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Exploration game?

Exploration + Transhumanism

Of 28 developers who shipped a Transhumanist Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×944 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 99 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 99 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $34k → $29k → $628 → $2.2k → $3.0k → $200k → $5.4k (still earning) → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $5.2k (exactly $5,242)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,917)
Top 5% $448k (exactly $448,351)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 75
Announced 99
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.50 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.50.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 4,273 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $5.2k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.
State of Mind older $19.99 1,548 76% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Daedalic Entertainment
Paradise Lost older $14.99 1,469 67% 44k $661k (exactly $660,609) PolyAmorous
Picayune Dreams older $4.99 4,164 98% 125k $623k (exactly $623,351) Stepford, Andyland, milkypossum
INCISION $14.99 997 85% 30k $448k (exactly $448,351) SmoothBrainDev
Cataclysm: Dark Days Ahead older $19.99 537 86% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) CleverRaven
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs
Anode Heart older $17.99 438 90% 13k $236k (exactly $236,389) Stove Powered Games
Ambrosia Sky $24.99 267 89% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive
FixFox older $14.99 367 85% 11k $165k (exactly $165,040) Rendlike
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
Extraneum $14.99 111 94% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) David Jalbert
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Alter Evo $14.99 23 95% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Technical Fiction

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.