Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Wuxia

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wuxia Exploration game?

Exploration + Wuxia

Only 12 developers shipped a Wuxia Exploration game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Path of Kung Fu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $190k, ×306 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $27k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3494 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 305.9 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 35 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Wuxia
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Exploration + Wuxia: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $26k (exactly $26,347)
Median $192k (exactly $192,122)
Top 25% $634k (exactly $634,151)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 26
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Wuxia
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 12,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $27k, median $190k, 1 in 4 over $630k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 35 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  10. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  11. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds31 devs · median $23k · 56 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fate Seeker II older $22.60 11,360 88% 341k $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) JSL Entertainment
下一站江湖Ⅱ older $24.99 8,507 72% 255k $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) 白玉京工作室
Three Kingdoms Zhao Yun older $19.99 3,829 66% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,296,251) ZUIJIANGYUE Game
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
梦江湖 older $19.99 1,349 50% 40k $809k (exactly $808,995) 侠客工作室
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
侠影录 $14.99 1,065 75% 32k $479k (exactly $478,930) 朽木工作室
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
侠落:百花杀尽 $12.99 493 70% 15k $192k (exactly $192,122) 上海江湖逸客信息技术有限公司
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Elder Ring · EA $9.99 230 40% 6.9k $69k (exactly $68,931) Funny as Hell
山河小侠 $4.99 176 82% 5.3k $26k (exactly $26,347) 小弟阿金
Legend of Swords II $2.99 9 55% 270 $807 (exactly $807) CWGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.