Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Exploration game?

Exploration + Crime

Of 187 developers who shipped a Crime Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 340 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×488 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 340 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 340 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 187
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $14k → $5.8k → $5.5k → $3.4k → $7.2k → $6.0k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 187
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,074)
Top 5% $307k (exactly $306,627)
Developers, 2 yr 187
Released games 479
Announced 340
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 23,535 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 340 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One older $44.99 4,189 77% 126k $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) Frogwares
The Case of the Golden Idol older $17.99 9,794 97% 294k $5.3M (exactly $5,285,822) Color Gray Games
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
LEGO® City Undercover older $19.99 7,414 91% 222k $4.4M (exactly $4,446,176) Traveller's Tales
Turnip Boy Commits Tax Evasion older $14.99 9,842 95% 295k $4.4M (exactly $4,425,947) Snoozy Kazoo
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Butcher's Creek $9.99 1,539 94% 46k $461k (exactly $461,238) David Szymanski
The Posthumous Investigation $19.99 554 94% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) Mother Gaia Studio
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.