Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Exploration game?

Exploration + Romance

Of 231 developers who shipped a Romance Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 355 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.2k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×921 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 355 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 355 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 231
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $10k → $6.7k → $18k → $5.5k → $3.8k → $6.5k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 231
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.2k (exactly $5,242)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $44,461)
Top 5% $437k (exactly $437,395)
Developers, 2 yr 231
Released games 591
Announced 355
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 27,984 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.2k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 144 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 355 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Gone Home older $14.99 13,619 77% 409k $6.1M (exactly $6,124,464) Fullbright
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Haven older $24.99 5,294 88% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,968,912) The Game Bakers
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
GreedFall: The Dying World $49.99 1,027 61% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,540,192) Spiders
灾厄黑龙与谎言公主 $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) 莓夜工作室
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Incantation $16.99 1,106 73% 33k $564k (exactly $563,728) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
Happy Island Fantasy $14.99 1,186 88% 36k $533k (exactly $533,344) HappyCreator

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.