Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Exploration game?

Exploration + Dark Fantasy

Of 517 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,343 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1164 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,343 games are announced against 309 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,343 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 517
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $2.9k → $2.3k → $3.8k → $2.3k → $1.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 517
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,078)
Top 5% $731k (exactly $731,034)
Developers, 2 yr 517
Released games 1,346
Announced 1,343
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 358,858 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 255 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,343 games are announced against 309 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED older $39.99 100,222 92% 3.0M $120M (exactly $120,236,333) QLOC, FromSoftware, Inc.
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers $49.99 44,865 58% 1.3M $67M (exactly $67,284,040) Leenzee
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Ravenswatch $24.99 16,908 79% 507k $13M (exactly $12,675,928) Passtech Games
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Of Ash and Steel $29.99 6,091 66% 183k $5.5M (exactly $5,480,073) Fire & Frost

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.