Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter game?

Choices Matter

Of 4,098 developers who shipped a Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,795 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 7,795 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 4,098
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $4.8k → $3.9k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $2.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 4,098
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,588)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,343)
Developers, 2 yr 4,098
Released games 11,558
Announced 7,795
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 642,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 2,104 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,795 games are announced against 2,588 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Choices Matter

173 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Turn-Based Tactics + Choices Matter Poor odds $1.2k 311 devs
  2. Tactical + Choices Matter Poor odds $1.1k 310 devs
  3. Choices Matter + Programming Poor odds $1.0k 20 devs
  4. Strategy + Choices Matter Poor odds $987 1,138 devs
  5. Choices Matter + Time Management Poor odds $959 254 devs
  6. Level Editor + Choices Matter Poor odds $959 22 devs
  7. Social Deduction + Choices Matter Poor odds $899 14 devs
  8. Action-Adventure + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 385 devs
  9. Survival + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 278 devs
  10. Stealth + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 90 devs
  11. Loot + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 52 devs
  12. Driving + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 35 devs
  13. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 15 devs
  14. 4 Player Local + Choices Matter Poor odds $898 9 devs
  15. Choices Matter + Time Manipulation Poor odds $897 32 devs
  16. Choices Matter + Idler Poor odds $839 127 devs
  17. Grand Strategy + Choices Matter Poor odds $838 66 devs
  18. Choices Matter + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $838 34 devs
  19. Choices Matter + Puzzle Poor odds $809 739 devs
  20. Combat + Choices Matter Poor odds $809 343 devs
  21. Choices Matter + Match 3 Poor odds $807 26 devs
  22. Action + Choices Matter Poor odds $748 753 devs
  23. Choices Matter + Grid-Based Movement Poor odds $748 54 devs
  24. Physics + Choices Matter Poor odds $719 162 devs
  25. Choices Matter + Quick-Time Events Poor odds $719 60 devs
  26. Trading Card Game + Choices Matter Poor odds $719 31 devs
  27. Parkour + Choices Matter Poor odds $719 28 devs
  28. Choices Matter + Gambling Poor odds $718 55 devs
  29. Choices Matter + Incremental Poor odds $660 220 devs
  30. Choices Matter + 2D Platformer Poor odds $657 221 devs
  31. PvP + Choices Matter Poor odds $629 125 devs
  32. Choices Matter + Tower Defense Poor odds $629 81 devs
  33. Choices Matter + Party Game Poor odds $629 35 devs
  34. Shooter + Choices Matter Poor odds $600 140 devs
  35. PvE + Choices Matter Poor odds $599 328 devs
  36. Action Roguelike + Choices Matter Poor odds $599 205 devs
  37. Flight + Choices Matter Poor odds $599 19 devs
  38. Space Sim + Choices Matter Poor odds $598 35 devs
  39. Third-Person Shooter + Choices Matter Poor odds $598 26 devs
  40. Vehicular Combat + Choices Matter Poor odds $597 14 devs
  41. Choices Matter + Tabletop Poor odds $479 123 devs
  42. Action RTS + Choices Matter Poor odds $479 21 devs
  43. Choices Matter + Logic Poor odds $449 257 devs
  44. 6DOF + Choices Matter Poor odds $449 11 devs
  45. Real Time Tactics + Choices Matter Poor odds $420 101 devs
  46. Destruction + Choices Matter Poor odds $420 13 devs
  47. Choices Matter + Bullet Hell Poor odds $359 122 devs
  48. Hunting + Choices Matter Poor odds $300 18 devs
  49. Choices Matter + Shoot 'Em Up Poor odds $299 55 devs
  50. Choices Matter + Bullet Heaven Poor odds $239 20 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey older $59.99 172,149 89% 5.2M $310M (exactly $309,816,555) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
The Blood of Dawnwalker $69.99 15,789 86% 474k $33M (exactly $33,152,163) Rebel Wolves
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.