Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Gambling game?

Choices Matter + Gambling

Of 55 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×805 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 85 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 85 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $13k → $478 → $4.5k → $809 → $599 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 111
Announced 85
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Gambling; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.89 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.89 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 11,878 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator 2023 · EA · $936k Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates 2026 · $383k Insider Trading 2026 · $232k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
Spin Hero $7.99 573 73% 17k $137k (exactly $137,348) Sphere Studios
LuckLand older $8.99 422 95% 13k $114k (exactly $113,813) e-Jade
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
RogueJack21 $11.99 196 67% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,501) Zandbox Studio
SuperTaxCity $9.99 166 89% 5.0k $50k (exactly $49,750) soramame-koubou
Break Shoot $4.99 106 99% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,868) UPTRAND

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.