Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Choices Matter

Of 101 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 199 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 75% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 199 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $14k → $989 → $210 → $3.2k → $359 → $390 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $420 (exactly $420)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,929)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 271
Announced 199
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, RTS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 8,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
911 Operator older $14.99 14,416 89% 432k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,875) Jutsu Games
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
Regiments older $29.99 2,822 87% 85k $2.5M (exactly $2,538,953) Bird's Eye Games
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Dummynation older $11.99 3,127 88% 94k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,782) Alejandro Hernández Ferrero
Hadean Tactics older $19.99 1,725 89% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) Emberfish Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Queen's Blade Re:Build $27.77 93 70% 2.8k $77k (exactly $77,478) SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.