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Should I ship a PvP Choices Matter game?
PvP + Choices Matter
Of 125 developers who shipped a PvP Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 241 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $59 (exactly $59) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $4.5k (exactly $4,496) |
| Top 5% | $200k (exactly $199,700) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 125 |
| Released games | 337 |
| Announced | 241 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Choices Matter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 18,050 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M 
Monster Train 2020 · $15M 
Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M 
Monster Train 2 2025 · $6.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | Bleak Faith: Forsaken | older | $29.99 | 2,839 75% | 85k | $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) | Archangel Studios |
 | Gigantic: Rampage Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,795 65% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) | Abstraction Games |
 | Tape to Tape | · EA older | $19.99 | 3,464 92% | 104k | $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) | Excellent Rectangle |
 | THE GAME OF LIFE 2 | older | $12.49 | 3,702 78% | 111k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,139) | Marmalade Game Studio Ltd |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 26 | $49.99 | 819 82% | 25k | $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time | $14.99 | 2,361 90% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) | That Fish, That Other Fish | |
 | Oaken Tower | · EA | $9.99 | 3,024 89% | 91k | $906k (exactly $906,293) | Bocary Studios |
 | Out of the Park Baseball 27 | $49.99 | 475 82% | 14k | $712k (exactly $712,358) | Out of the Park Developments | |
 | CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS | $59.99 | 330 50% | 9.9k | $594k (exactly $593,901) | TAMSOFT CORPORATION | |
 | Kind Words 2 (lofi city pop) | $19.99 | 632 92% | 19k | $379k (exactly $379,010) | Popcannibal | |
 | Class of '09: Puzzle Showdown | $19.99 | 333 57% | 10k | $200k (exactly $199,700) | SBN3 | |
 | Pure Badminton | $19.99 | 323 81% | 9.7k | $194k (exactly $193,703) | DS SOFT | |
 | Thick As Thieves | $4.99 | 1,106 65% | 33k | $166k (exactly $165,568) | OtherSide Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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