Do I ship it?

Games › Action Roguelike › Action Roguelike + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Choices Matter

Of 205 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 413 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×464 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 413 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 413 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 205
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $899 → $1.9k → $2.3k → $1.6k → $1.1k → $180 (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 205
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $220,353)
Developers, 2 yr 205
Released games 444
Announced 413
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike, Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 21,670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $8.5k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 413 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crab Champions 2023 · EA · $8.0M HighFleet 2021 · $6.3M UnderMine 2020 · $5.6M Hand of Fate 2 2017 · $4.7M Rogue: Genesia 2025 · $3.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
UnderMine older $19.99 9,284 90% 279k $5.6M (exactly $5,567,615) Thorium
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Ember Knights older $19.99 6,065 93% 182k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,180) Doom Turtle
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
GOD FORSAKEN $13.99 1,728 67% 52k $725k (exactly $725,242) insight studio
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
Dunjungle $14.99 692 96% 21k $311k (exactly $311,192) Bruno Bombardi
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.