Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Flight game?

Flight + Choices Matter

Only 19 developers shipped a Choices Matter Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Whisker Squadron: Survivor, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 41 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 41 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59 → $2.3k → $180 → $7.7k → $10k → $839 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 57
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 913 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X-Plane 12 older $59.99 6,318 86% 190k $11M (exactly $11,370,505) Laminar Research
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
B-17 Flying Fortress : The Mighty 8th Redux · EA older $14.99 341 65% 10k $153k (exactly $153,348) MicroProse Software
SEX Airlines 🔞✈️ older $9.99 151 61% 4.5k $45k (exactly $45,255) Play and Cum 💦
Tower! 3D older $8.99 81 60% 2.4k $22k (exactly $21,846) FeelThere
DragonRideVR older $14.99 47 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) TypeEh Studios
B-17 Flying Fortress: The Mighty 8th older $7.99 84 77% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Wayward Design
Undead: Rise of the Betrayed King · EA $19.99 17 70% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Artak Avetisyan
Pocket and Zooom $15.99 16 75% 480 $7.7k (exactly $7,675) TechnoBrain
ORBITAL $9.99 12 66% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Night Sky Dogs
One Million Stars $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Tom Sennett Games
Simple Airline Sim $7.99 8 0% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) zedzag
Alastrius: Star-Fighter $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Caledonia Interactive
Gravity Break · EA $13.99 2 100% 60 $839 (exactly $839) bakspace interactive, Kristian Bak, Dan… (bakspace interactive, Kristian Bak, Daniel Clifton, Nanna Fjord)
The Great Ocean $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Actrio Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.