Do I ship it?

GamesChoices MatterChoices Matter + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Logic game?

Choices Matter + Logic

Of 257 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 343 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $47k, ×100 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 343 games are announced against 166 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 343 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 257
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.4k → $449 → $1.9k → $150 → $449 → $419 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 257
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $47,668)
Developers, 2 yr 257
Released games 717
Announced 343
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Puzzle, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 42,186 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.8k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 112 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 343 games are announced against 166 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Blacksad: Under the Skin older $19.99 5,356 83% 161k $3.2M (exactly $3,211,993) Pendulo Studios, YS Interactive
Electrician Simulator older $17.99 4,061 80% 122k $2.2M (exactly $2,191,722) Take IT Studio!
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
Milfy City - Final Edition older $19.99 710 79% 21k $426k (exactly $425,787) ICSTOR
Revhead older $19.99 597 80% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) Creative Pudding Hungary Llc.
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
The Cabin Factory $2.99 3,455 90% 104k $310k (exactly $309,914) International Cat Studios
Security 51 $9.99 454 71% 14k $136k (exactly $136,064) Alawar
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
We Escaped a Twisted Game $4.99 792 94% 24k $119k (exactly $118,562) Deluded Games
BroomSweeper $17.99 193 75% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) BandsWithLegends
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.