Games › Survival › Survival + Choices Matter
Should I ship a Choices Matter Survival game?
Survival + Choices Matter
Of 278 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 598 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1723 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 598 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $17k (exactly $16,546) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 278 |
| Released games | 772 |
| Announced | 598 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Survival
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Survival, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, RPG
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 188,044 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 129 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 598 games are announced against 168 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Social DeductionFair
- + Word GameFair
- + CatsFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + DogsFair
- + Martial ArtsLong shot
- + Boomer ShooterLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M 
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
This War of Mine 2014 · $49M 
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | The Walking Dead | older | $14.99 | 53,650 97% | 1.6M | $24M (exactly $24,126,405) | Telltale Games |
 | Kingdoms and Castles | older | $19.99 | 30,311 93% | 909k | $18M (exactly $18,177,507) | Lion Shield, LLC |
 | IXION | older | $34.99 | 15,281 77% | 458k | $16M (exactly $16,040,466) | Bulwark Studios |
 | Darkwood | older | $19.99 | 22,236 94% | 667k | $13M (exactly $13,334,929) | Acid Wizard Studio |
 | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
 | Atomfall | $49.99 | 4,526 76% | 136k | $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) | Rebellion | |
 | Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown | $34.99 | 4,162 79% | 125k | $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) | Gamexcite | |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition | $19.99 | 6,619 65% | 199k | $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) | GSC Game World | |
 | The Crust | $31.99 | 3,502 76% | 105k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) | VEOM Studio | |
 | Mind Over Magic | $24.99 | 4,314 86% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) | Sparkypants | |
 | Pathologic 3 | $34.99 | 2,528 80% | 76k | $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) | Ice-Pick Lodge |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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