Games › Strategy › Strategy + Choices Matter
Should I ship a Choices Matter Strategy game?
Strategy + Choices Matter
Of 1,138 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,101 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 2,101 games are announced against 746 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $987 (exactly $987) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,025) |
| Top 5% | $425k (exactly $425,187) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,138 |
| Released games | 2,639 |
| Announced | 2,101 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Strategy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Strategy, Choices Matter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Management
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 346,888 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 471 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,101 games are announced against 746 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + BaseballFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + WuxiaFair
- + FarmingFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + SubmarineFair
- + NavalFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Shop KeeperFair
- + HackingFair
Comparable games
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M 
Dispatch 2025 · $157M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition | older | $44.99 | 180,782 95% | 5.4M | $244M (exactly $244,001,465) | Larian Studios |
| | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
 | Dragon Age™: The Veilguard | $59.99 | 41,393 67% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $74,494,982) | BioWare | |
 | Balatro | older | $14.99 | 160,715 97% | 4.8M | $72M (exactly $72,273,536) | LocalThunk |
 | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
 | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader | older | $49.99 | 33,701 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,541,390) | Owlcat Games |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.