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Should I ship a Choices Matter Trading Card Game?
Trading Card Game + Choices Matter
Of 31 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×130 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 53 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) |
| Top 5% | $82k (exactly $81,845) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 31 |
| Released games | 68 |
| Announced | 53 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trading Card Game
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Trading Card Game, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Adventure, Card Game
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,235 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Immersive SimStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Procedural GenerationPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Auto BattlerPoor odds
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
Comparable games
Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense 2020 · $5.9M 
Out of the Park Baseball 27 2026 · $712k 
Heroes Wanted 2024 · $320k 
Witch and Council : The Card 2024 · $82k 
Fuckstone 2025 · $78k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Rush Vengeance - Tower Defense | older | $19.99 | 9,906 93% | 297k | $5.9M (exactly $5,940,628) | Ironhide Game Studio |
| | Out of the Park Baseball 27 | $49.99 | 475 82% | 14k | $712k (exactly $712,358) | Out of the Park Developments | |
| | Heroes Wanted | older | $19.99 | 533 81% | 16k | $320k (exactly $319,640) | Gameplete |
| | Witch and Council : The Card | $14.99 | 182 48% | 5.5k | $82k (exactly $81,845) | G1 Playground | |
| | Fuckstone | $11.99 | 217 88% | 6.5k | $78k (exactly $78,055) | Anime Mania | |
 | Castle Cardians | · EA older | $14.99 | 113 72% | 3.4k | $51k (exactly $50,816) | 风宇冲 |
 | 修仙•母珠传 Pig Training Legend | $7.99 | 192 72% | 5.8k | $46k (exactly $46,022) | MouseKKK | |
 | Control Craft 3 | older | $4.99 | 235 73% | 7.1k | $35k (exactly $35,180) | Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik |
 | Chainsaw Warrior (Classic) | older | $4.99 | 229 64% | 6.9k | $34k (exactly $34,281) | Auroch Digital |
 | Pythagoria | older | $1.99 | 233 73% | 7.0k | $14k (exactly $13,910) | Vladimir Maslov |
 | ChronoBabes | $3.99 | 81 80% | 2.4k | $9.7k (exactly $9,696) | Vinci | |
 | PERSEVERANCE: Chapter 1 | $4.99 | 25 44% | 750 | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) | XPECTED | |
 | Chesscent | $7.99 | 14 64% | 420 | $3.4k (exactly $3,356) | Alex did it | |
 | Idle Colors | $7.99 | 10 30% | 300 | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) | Like Idle Games | |
 | Words Of Power | $15.00 | 5 80% | 150 | $2.3k (exactly $2,250) | Tsuperion | |
 | XIII - A Final Game of Tarot With Death | $1.99 | 34 91% | 1.0k | $2.0k (exactly $2,030) | Indigo Dreams |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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