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Should I ship a Choices Matter Grand Strategy?
Grand Strategy + Choices Matter
Of 66 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 118 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 118 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 165% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $838 (exactly $838) |
| Top 25% | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) |
| Top 5% | $97k (exactly $97,151) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 66 |
| Released games | 172 |
| Announced | 118 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 165% on the market, supply 280% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Grand Strategy
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Grand Strategy, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Economy
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 26,866 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 118 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RoguelikeFair
- + SportsFair
- + RogueliteFair
- + CrimeFair
- + RacingFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot
- + TabletopLong shot
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Age of Wonders 4 2023 · $25M 
Imperator: Rome 2019 · $23M 
Democracy 4 2022 · $5.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Imperator: Rome | older | $39.99 | 19,492 65% | 585k | $23M (exactly $23,384,552) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Democracy 4 | older | $29.99 | 5,891 81% | 177k | $5.3M (exactly $5,300,133) | Positech Games |
 | Total Conflict: Resistance | · EA older | $29.99 | 5,089 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) | Thunder Devs. |
 | Star Trek: Infinite | older | $29.99 | 3,030 41% | 91k | $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) | Nimble Giant Entertainment |
 | Dune: Imperium | older | $22.99 | 3,806 94% | 114k | $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) | Dire Wolf |
 | Solium Infernum | older | $39.99 | 1,571 88% | 47k | $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) | League of Geeks |
 | Plebby Quest: The Crusades | older | $19.99 | 2,625 86% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,574,212) | PiedPipers Team |
 | Monarch : Medieval Remastered | $11.99 | 365 80% | 11k | $131k (exactly $131,290) | Mr.Lordy | |
 | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
 | Mr. President | $19.99 | 162 75% | 4.9k | $97k (exactly $97,151) | Exia Labs | |
 | For the Fatherland: Chronicle of Park Chung-hee | $14.99 | 176 88% | 5.3k | $79k (exactly $79,147) | KMS STUDIO | |
 | Axis Football 2026 | $19.99 | 115 75% | 3.5k | $69k (exactly $68,966) | Axis Games | |
 | 吾皇万岁 | $4.99 | 422 68% | 13k | $63k (exactly $63,173) | AI GAME STUDIO | |
 | Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution | $24.99 | 72 68% | 2.2k | $54k (exactly $53,978) | Studio Imugi | |
 | Axis Football 2027 | $19.99 | 44 72% | 1.3k | $26k (exactly $26,387) | Axis Games | |
 | Hypnosis Card 2 | $12.99 | 65 78% | 2.0k | $25k (exactly $25,330) | Naku Kinoko |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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