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Should I ship a Choices Matter Puzzle game?
Choices Matter + Puzzle
Of 739 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,205 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×373 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,205 games are announced against 456 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $208 (exactly $208) |
|---|---|
| Median | $809 (exactly $809) |
| Top 25% | $7.6k (exactly $7,645) |
| Top 5% | $177k (exactly $177,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 739 |
| Released games | 2,043 |
| Announced | 1,205 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 43,862 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 352 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,205 games are announced against 456 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Papers, Please 2013 · $22M 
The Stanley Parable 2013 · $18M 
OneShot 2016 · $18M 
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley 2023 · EA · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Papers, Please | older | $9.99 | 73,406 97% | 2.2M | $22M (exactly $21,999,778) | Lucas Pope |
| | The Stanley Parable | older | $14.99 | 40,292 92% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,119,312) | Galactic Cafe |
| | OneShot | older | $9.99 | 59,201 98% | 1.8M | $18M (exactly $17,742,540) | Future Cat LLC |
| | The Coffin of Andy and Leyley | · EA older | $11.99 | 36,603 96% | 1.1M | $13M (exactly $13,166,099) | Kit9 Studio |
 | Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter | older | $29.99 | 12,076 80% | 362k | $11M (exactly $10,864,777) | Frogwares |
 | House Party | older | $24.99 | 13,968 85% | 419k | $10M (exactly $10,471,810) | Eek! Games, LLC |
 | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | Strange Horticulture | older | $15.99 | 14,867 94% | 446k | $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) | Bad Viking |
 | Little Misfortune | older | $19.99 | 11,789 92% | 354k | $7.1M (exactly $7,069,863) | Killmonday Games AB |
 | Endacopia | $16.50 | 6,474 99% | 194k | $3.2M (exactly $3,204,630) | Andyland | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 | |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Sol Cesto | $13.99 | 4,838 91% | 145k | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) | Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale) | |
 | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ | |
 | Beholder: Conductor | $13.99 | 4,532 91% | 136k | $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) | Alawar | |
 | Strange Antiquities | $17.99 | 3,288 95% | 99k | $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) | Bad Viking | |
 | OneShot: World Machine Edition | $9.99 | 5,349 98% | 160k | $1.6M (exactly $1,603,095) | Future Cat LLC | |
 | Disney Epic Mickey: Rebrushed | $39.99 | 1,275 93% | 38k | $1.5M (exactly $1,529,618) | Purple Lamp |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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