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Should I ship a Choices Matter Match 3?
Choices Matter + Match 3
Of 26 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Match 3 in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×245 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $807 (exactly $807) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $33,762) |
| Top 5% | $117k (exactly $116,583) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 90 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Match 3
- effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Match 3; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Visual Novel, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,118 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2024 · $336k 
Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer 2021 · $221k 
Sex and the Furry Titty 2: Sins of the City 2022 · $212k 
Sex and the Furry Titty 2021 · $209k 
Mindcop 2024 · $186k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen | older | $3.99 | 2,807 93% | 84k | $336k (exactly $335,998) | Hue Axis Entertainment |
| | Furry Shades of Gay 2: A Shade Gayer | older | $9.99 | 738 96% | 22k | $221k (exactly $221,179) | Furlough Games |
| | Sex and the Furry Titty 2: Sins of the City | older | $9.99 | 708 91% | 21k | $212k (exactly $212,188) | Furlough Games |
| | Sex and the Furry Titty | older | $6.99 | 996 90% | 30k | $209k (exactly $208,861) | Furlough Games |
| | Mindcop | $14.99 | 413 94% | 12k | $186k (exactly $185,726) | Andre Gareis | |
 | Furry Shades of Gay | older | $6.99 | 835 91% | 25k | $175k (exactly $175,100) | Furlough Games |
 | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 | $9.99 | 389 93% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Sex and the Furry Titty 3: Come Inside, Sweety | older | $9.99 | 325 92% | 9.8k | $97k (exactly $97,402) | Furlough Games |
 | Purino Party | older | $11.99 | 249 66% | 7.5k | $90k (exactly $89,565) | Frontwing |
 | PumPum | older | $3.99 | 693 74% | 21k | $83k (exactly $82,952) | Shmoops Games |
 | Heartspell: Horizon Academy | $19.99 | 116 96% | 3.5k | $70k (exactly $69,565) | Dire Kitten Games | |
 | Hentai Stories | $9.99 | 228 83% | 6.8k | $68k (exactly $68,332) | Horny Capybara Studio | |
 | Island Of Enchantment | $4.99 | 394 93% | 12k | $59k (exactly $58,982) | DigitalDream | |
 | Neon Village | $9.99 | 146 86% | 4.4k | $44k (exactly $43,756) | Encraft | |
 | Furry Adventure Club and the Holy Grail 🦁 | $6.99 | 161 93% | 4.8k | $34k (exactly $33,762) | Furry Dreams Lab | |
 | Hyperborea: Hornysolation | $4.99 | 164 73% | 4.9k | $25k (exactly $24,551) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | ChronoBabes | $3.99 | 81 80% | 2.4k | $9.7k (exactly $9,696) | Vinci | |
 | 转生魔塔 | $11.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) | Zeros |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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