Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Choices Matter game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Choices Matter

Only 15 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Choices Matter game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Oaken Tower, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $900k, ×1443 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $4.1k → $55k → $809 → $469k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Top 5% $906k (exactly $906,293)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 43
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, PvP, Tactical RPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $900, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $900k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Solium Infernum 2024 · $1.9M Oaken Tower 2026 · EA · $906k Dwarven Realms 2024 · $854k Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 2026 · $469k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 $29.99 521 86% 16k $469k (exactly $468,744) Digixart
Clandestine older $9.99 356 79% 11k $107k (exactly $106,693) Logic Artists
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Empyreal $14.99 123 69% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Silent Games
Stone Age: Digital Edition older $14.99 82 82% 2.5k $37k (exactly $36,875) Acram Digital, Hans im Glück
Antioch: Scarlet Bay older $4.99 220 78% 6.6k $33k (exactly $32,934) Midnight Mood Studio
Blêktre 2081 $8.99 11 100% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Charles Torris
Age of New Worlds $6.99 6 66% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) ernest.dev
Raidbound $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Rustin Robinson
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
Transistor Defense · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Realm Games LLC, Valiant Pixel Studios… (Realm Games LLC, Valiant Pixel Studios LLC)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.